India's Imminent Shift from Cotton Exporter to Net Importer: Approaching Cotton Predicament
India's cotton sector is facing a series of challenges, with the anticipated output for 2024-25 predicted to be the lowest in over a decade, at 29.4 million bales. This decline is a stark contrast to the peak of BT cotton's successful run in 2013-14, when the output stood at 39.8 million bales.
One of the main factors contributing to this decline is the loss of effectiveness of the BT cotton variety against pests. In response, companies like Bayer CropScience and Corteva Agriscience are seeking clearances for first-stage field trials for a gene aimed at providing protection against the pink bollworm. This gene is associated with a genetically modified cotton variety named "BioCotX24A1". Field trials of this proprietary technology are also in the pipeline by Bioseed Research India Ltd.
Meanwhile, many farmers, particularly in Punjab, have switched to desi (traditional) varieties of cotton to combat voracious whiteflies. Kailash Rao Kadam, a 55-year-old farmer from western Maharashtra, is one such farmer who will not grow cotton during the current summer-sown season, citing the lowest prices in three years as a reason for his decision.
The textile sector in India is also bracing for potential negative impacts due to US President Donald Trump's 50% tariff. To mitigate these effects, the government has allowed duty-free imports for a four-month period until December. However, no new information has been released about the potential impacts of this tariff on the textile sector.
In an effort to bolster the cotton sector, the government is looking at modernizing 1000 ginning mills and implementing a five-year cotton productivity mission worth ₹2500 crore, announced in the Union Budget. This mission will focus on developing climate-smart, pest-resistant, and high-yielding cotton varieties, including extra long Staple (ELS) cotton.
The government is also considering the use of "biotechnology tools" for an upgraded or next-generation home-grown GM technology in cotton. Despite being against allowing transgenic food crops, the government could give a go-ahead to an upgraded GM technology in cotton, recognising the need for a technology breakthrough in cotton production.
However, it's important to note that no information about the decisions of farmers in other regions apart from western Maharashtra regarding growing cotton during the current summer-sown season has been reported.
Cotton imports in India this year have outweighed exports, making India a net importer. Despite these challenges, there is a glimmer of hope for India's cotton sector, with the potential of new technologies and government initiatives to revitalise the industry and secure India's position as a major player in the global cotton market.
