Indian Prime Minister Modi sets off on seven-year-old journey to China

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit China tomorrow, marking his first visit in seven years. This trip comes amidst a regional security summit and a complex web of international trade relations.

Modi's visit coincides with a significant development in India-US relations. The US has doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50 percent, due to India's refusal to stop buying Russian oil. Two-thirds of India's exports to the US, approximately $60.2 billion, are now subject to these new tariffs, affecting labor-intensive sectors like textiles and jewelry. The US tariff hike is causing an economic blow to India, as the US is India's biggest export market, with exports of $86.5 billion annually.

Some in China are reportedly reveling in the trade tensions between India and the US. However, both India and China recognize that the world order is in flux and neither is likely to decisively manage all the frictions. There's at least a process of trying to grow the relationship, with Modi's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the regional summit high on the agenda.

The rift between India and the US stands to benefit Russia, as Delhi sees the relationship as more vital than ever for balancing ties with the West, diversifying military hardware purchases, and ensuring energy security. Russian President Vladimir Putin may seek to capitalize on the situation by reasserting Russia's close relationship with India.

Historical mistrust will remain between India and China due to their contested frontier, as China continues to reinforce it with new roads, railways, and settlements. However, an effort is underway to see if India and China can reach some sort of new equilibrium.

In response to the US tariffs, the Indian government has rolled out an export drive across 40 countries to boost its textile trade. Indian officials stress that Delhi wishes to continue its ties with the US, but also needs to "diversify its partnerships." For Modi, the photos of him standing alongside Xi and Putin at the summit will send a pointed message to Washington.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which starts tomorrow, is timed favorably for China, as India-China relations are stabilizing and India-US relations have deteriorated. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin will also be present during Modi's visit.

Indian officials cannot afford to appear as though they are giving in to US pressure on oil imports or anything else that could be construed as a capitulation, and public anger is high. The visit to China, therefore, represents a strategic move for Modi, aiming to secure economic and political alliances beyond the US.