Impact of Economic Factors Determines Election Outcomes

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According to the latest MSNBC poll, a significant number of swing state voters are expressing concerns about the economy. A staggering 63% of these voters say the economy is in not so good or poor condition, while only 36% say it's in good or excellent.

This shift in public opinion isn't attributed to Trump's policies on issues like Israel and Gaza or abortion, but rather the economy itself. The weakness of the economy due to the Covid-19 pandemic is a significant reason for Trump's loss in the 2020 election.

Interestingly, in March 2024, Donald Trump was beating Joe Biden by 7 points (52% to 45%). However, if the adage that presidents with good economies going into the election will be reelected holds true, President Biden may lose the 2024 election, and Donald Trump may become the second president to win two non-consecutive terms.

This notion that the state of the economy is a deciding factor in elections has been true for over 100 years in American politics. Elections are often decided by the state of the economy, with voters demanding political change when they feel disenfranchised about the economy's state.

Bryce Maloney '26 wrote an article titled "Biden vs. Trump - Voting Based on Effectiveness" discussing the possibility of a rematch between former President Trump and President Biden in the 2024 election. Tucker Scott '26, in a separate article titled "Why A Trump vs Biden Rematch Is Not the Worst Thing," discussed how politics often devolve into character attacks rather than policy debates.

It's worth noting that examples of political leaders being ousted due to economic concerns are not limited to the United States. Leaders like Liz Truss in Britain, Emmanuel Macron in France, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Javier Milei in Argentina, Xi Jinping in China, and Vladimir Putin in Russia have also faced similar fates.

Tucker Scott '26 also wrote an article titled "Money Does Not Matter in Our Modern Elections," arguing that while campaign funding used to give a significant advantage, it no longer holds the same weight in today's political landscape.

Despite the uncertainties, one thing remains clear: the economy will play a crucial role in the 2024 presidential election. Whether President Biden can turn the economy around or if Donald Trump can capitalise on the current economic concerns, only time will tell.