Growth in solar energy production significantly decreased China's carbon dioxide emissions during the initial six months of the year 2025, as per an analysis.

In the first half of 2025, China's CO2 emissions show a mixed picture, with some sectors making progress in reducing emissions while others continue to contribute to the country's carbon footprint.

The power sector, traditionally a major source of emissions, has made significant strides in reducing its CO2 output. The rise in power generation from solar panels has been so substantial that it has covered all of the growth in electricity demand during this period. Solar power alone has matched the rise in electricity demand, setting the stage for an annual record for growth in 2025, making solar China's single-largest source of clean power generation.

However, the coal-chemicals industry, a sector that China has developed aggressively, presents a different story. In 2024, the industry consumed approximately 390m tonnes of coal, resulting in an estimated 690m tonnes CO2 emissions. The growth in this industry reflects drastically improved profitability in most segments in recent years, with its profitability heavily dependent on the oil price. If the industry's further expansion plans, as announced by companies like Ningxia Baofeng Energy and Yankuang Energy, come to fruition, it could add another 2% to China's CO2 emissions by 2029.

The State Grid predicts 127 GW of thermal power, with around 90-100 GW being coal, will be added this year. This could potentially set a new annual record for coal-power capacity. Data from Global Energy Monitor shows 93-109 GW of coal-power projects under construction that could be completed this year. If these projects are completed, they would complicate China's carbon peaking target and make the CO2 intensity target for 2030 even more challenging to meet.

On a positive note, the building materials sector and the metals industry have shown a decrease in emissions. Emissions from the building materials sector fell by 3%, and from the metals industry by 1%, with cement falling 4% and steel output 3%.

Despite the expected fall in overall CO2 emissions across 2025 as a whole, due to the record solar capacity additions in the first half of the year, China is still bound to miss multiple important climate targets this year. The chemical industry association still expects the sector to expand capacity for another decade, until 2035, even under China's CO2 peaking target.

In conclusion, while the power sector is making strides in reducing emissions, the coal-chemicals industry and the potential increase in coal-power capacity pose challenges to China's carbon peaking target and its commitment to reducing CO2 emissions.

Growth in solar energy production significantly decreased China's carbon dioxide emissions during the initial six months of the year 2025, as per an analysis.