Grayscale's likelihood of introducing an ETF increases to 87%, spurring speculation about a possible 120% surge in Cardano's price.

Cardano, the popular proof-of-stake cryptocurrency, is experiencing a surge in optimism as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) prepares to make a decision on a proposed Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) for the digital asset.

The institution behind the ETF proposal, Grayscale Investments, registered a Cardano Trust ETF in Delaware on August 12, 2025. Recent filings have boosted the chances of approval to 87%, with the SEC decision expected on October 26, 2025. If approved, the Cardano ETF will have ADA as a direct hold and will be secured by Coinbase Custody.

The proposed ETF will track the CoinDesk Cardano Price Index, reducing exposure to leverage or derivatives. This development has strengthened expectations for institutional inflows into ADA, potentially bolstering the price in the months ahead.

In terms of technical analysis, Cardano price has been consolidating, keeping the technical structure intact. However, a significant development occurred recently as the wedge channel, a bullish structure, has been broken and retested, suggesting a potential breakout. The upside potential from this wedge breakout spans nearly 120%, pointing toward a potential target of $1.80.

Currently, Cardano price is retesting the upper boundary of this descending wedge channel at approximately $0.81. ADA price is also testing support zones near $0.79 and $0.75. The chart pattern is often viewed as a bullish structure, and historical setups have been followed by strong breakouts for Cardano.

Interestingly, the Stoch RSI, a momentum indicator, is currently around 3.14, indicating oversold conditions. Similarly, the Stoch RSI value near 5.70 indicates oversold conditions, which frequently precede upward price reactions.

However, it's important to note that the risk remains in the form of failed support, which could drag ADA lower toward $0.32. If this were to happen, it could potentially dampen the bullish outlook for Cardano.

In conclusion, the outlook for Cardano leans bullish, with technicals and external catalysts aligning for growth. The potential upside targets for ADA price are at $1.32 and $1.80, making it an exciting time for investors and traders alike.

Grayscale's likelihood of introducing an ETF increases to 87%, spurring speculation about a possible 120% surge in Cardano's price.