Government of France on Brink of Uncontrolled Disarray

The upcoming vote of confidence for French Prime Minister François Bayrou, scheduled for Monday, September 8th, is shrouded in uncertainty. The outcome of the vote could determine Bayrou's future and potentially shape the political landscape of France.

Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau has called for unanimous support from Les Républicains (LR) MPs for the government. However, the support may not be forthcoming as the leaders of the Rassemblement National (RN), Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, have decided not to vote in favour of confidence.

The dissolution of the National Assembly is not automatic and depends on a presidential decision. If Bayrou fails to win the confidence of the majority of MPs, he will be forced to submit his resignation to the President of the Republic.

The success or failure of the vote of confidence lies in the hands of the Socialists. The left-wing party, La France Insoumise, has decided not to support the government. On the other hand, the Socialists are not counting on a dissolution and want to press their advantage.

Thierry Breton, a potential successor to Prime Minister Bayrou in case of a failed vote of confidence, has suggested the possibility of appointing a prime minister from the largest parliamentary group in the National Assembly, namely the RN. However, the appointment of an RN prime minister would discredit the national right-wing party before the presidential elections.

Olivier Faure, a prominent figure on the left, has expressed his desire to be appointed prime minister by Emmanuel Macron once François Bayrou is out of the picture, at the head of a left-wing government. Macron, who began his political career as a minister in a socialist government, is not ruling out the possibility of appointing a left-wing government.

Former President Nicolas Sarkozy disagrees with the official LR line and argues that supporting the government perpetuates confusion. The RN hopes for Bayrou's fall and the organisation of new legislative elections as soon as possible.

The manoeuvre of appointing an RN prime minister is possible, but highly unlikely. Macron may choose to appoint a new prime minister without calling the French people back to the polls. The search results do not provide information about Thierry Breton's proposed candidate as a potential successor to Prime Minister Bayrou in case of a failed vote of confidence.

In this political chess game, the Socialists hold the key to Bayrou's future. The outcome of the confidence vote remains uncertain, adding to the suspense and intrigue surrounding French politics.