Government Shift Causes Unrest in Paris: Outcomes Explored

Paris facing another crisis: Outcomes of the government's fall outlined - Government Collapse Triggers Fresh Chaos in Paris: Outcomes Explored

France is in a state of uncertainty after the fall of its centrist government, led by Prime Minister François Bayrou, on September 8, 2025. The government's downfall, unintentional and caused by Prime Minister Bayrou himself putting a question of confidence to the National Assembly, has left the country in a precarious position.

The political paralysis resulting from the government collapse could delay budget plans, potentially pushing foreign policy issues like Ukraine aid into the background. France has allocated around 7.6 billion euros in military, financial, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine since 2022 until the end of June 2025, which is about 0.3 percent of its gross domestic product.

This is the second prime minister to fall within a year, following Michel Barnier's downfall in December. The repayment of debts could become the largest budget item, even before expenses for education or defense, as warned by the prime minister. The government's fall may lead to a delay and weakening of the austerity efforts, potentially increasing the interest burden of new government bonds and negatively affecting the French economy.

President Emmanuel Macron is not required to step down due to the government’s fall, but it is a heavy defeat for him. There is increased pressure on President Macron, both on the streets and in parliament. After the fall, Prime Minister Bayrou must submit his government's resignation to President Macron, and the cabinet is expected to continue on a caretaker basis until a successor is found.

The political mix in parliament, which has no faction with its own majority, goes back to the parliamentary elections initiated by President Macron in 2024. A coalition is planning to block the country as early as Wednesday.

The fall of the government could also have implications for Europe. With the further weakening of Macron, more responsibility may fall on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Europe, as the USA is increasingly withdrawing from Ukraine support. Germany is now considered the most important partner of Ukraine, in terms of weapons deliveries and financial support, due to the USA’s withdrawal from Ukraine support.

France has defended its relatively low contribution compared to other EU countries and Germany by arguing that it supplies strategically important weapons for the defense of Ukraine. However, the European Commission is concerned about the budget situation in France, having already initiated a penalty procedure last year due to excessive new debt.

The drafted austerity budget by Bayrou aimed to address France's galloping public debt, which currently stands at around 114 percent of GDP, the highest in the eurozone after Greece and Italy. The European Commission fears that the situation could further deteriorate given the political climate, potentially leading to a renewed loss of trust in the Eurozone.

As France navigates through this political turmoil, the future remains uncertain. The appointment of a new prime minister by President Macron will be a crucial step towards restoring stability and confidence in the country.