Forecasted sales revenue of over $10 billion for Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 medication, according to financial analysts' predictions.
In a significant development for the pharmaceutical industry, Eli Lilly's obesity drug candidate, Orforglipron, has successfully passed the Phase III ATTAIN-2 trial. This triumphant clinical win has sent ripples of excitement through the market, with analysts and investors alike revising their projections for the drug's potential sales.
Orforglipron, an oral medication, demonstrated impressive results in adults who were obese or overweight and had type 2 diabetes. The primary endpoint of the trial showed that Orforglipron 36 mg lowered weight by an average of 10.5% (22.9 lbs) compared to 2.2% (5.1 lbs) with placebo. Moreover, the drug produced an A1C reduction of 1.8% from an average baseline of 8.1%.
HSBC, a leading global bank, has upgraded its rating on Lilly shares from "Reduce" to "Hold," projecting that Orforglipron will generate close to $10B in peak-year sales. This forecast is in line with David Risinger, a senior managing director and senior research analyst with Leerink Partners, who maintains an earlier prediction that Orforglipron will reach multi-billion-dollar "blockbuster" sales. Leerink Partners projects 2030 estimated Orforglipron sales of $13.5B, 35% above a consensus of analysts' forecast of $10B.
Jefferies, another prominent financial services firm, is even more optimistic about Orforglipron's potential. Akash Tewari, the global head of biopharmaceutical research with Jefferies, estimates the peak annual sales of Orforglipron at around $25 billion. Tewari wrote that Orforglipron 36 mg generally looks in line with Wegovy® 2.4 mg/oral semaglutide 50 mg, a well-known obesity treatment.
The success of Orforglipron has had a noticeable impact on the stock market. Novo Nordisk's main shares fell 4.5% on Tuesday due to Lilly's clinical win in ATTAIN-2. However, Novo Nordisk's shares bounced back 1.6% on Wednesday, inched up another 0.6% on Thursday, and finished Friday trading unchanged after the initial dip. Eli Lilly's shares, on the other hand, climbed 5% this past week. Orforglipron's shares rose 6% on Tuesday, but have since dipped 0.1% and inched up 0.6%.
The positive outcomes of the ATTAIN-2 trial have also sparked interest in other related sectors. For instance, Invivyd shares rocketed 84% from 56 cents to $1.03 on August 26 in response to the news that the Trump administration plans to withdraw mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines from the U.S. market and Invivyd's alignment with the FDA on a rapid pathway to potential Biologics License Application (BLA) approval for its monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidate VYD2311 for the prevention of COVID-19.
A regulatory submission for Orforglipron in obesity is expected before the end of the year. If Eli Lilly accelerates the timeline through priority review and participation in the FDA's Commissioner's National Priority Voucher program, as predicted by Jefferies analyst, the launch could be in late 2025 or early 2026.
In another exciting development, Immuneering shares jumped 22% on August 25 due to a clinical supply agreement with Eli Lilly for its second-generation KRAS G12C inhibitor, olomorasib. This agreement underscores the growing partnership between Eli Lilly and other pharmaceutical companies in the fight against various diseases.
In conclusion, the successful Phase III trial of Orforglipron has ignited renewed hope for effective obesity treatments and boosted market expectations for Eli Lilly's potential sales. The regulatory submission for Orforglipron in obesity is eagerly anticipated, and investors will be watching closely for any updates on the drug's timeline and potential launch date.
