Farmers holding back on cereal sales despite bountiful harvests, triggering a drop in prices
In the world of agriculture, the future is shaping up to be a challenging one for grain farmers as prices remain stubbornly low. This is according to recent reports, which suggest that tough times lie ahead.
On a positive note, the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture forecasts a significant increase in the winter wheat harvest for this year, estimating a yield of 22.45 million tonnes. This figure represents a substantial leap from last year's figures.
Russia, a major player in the global grain market, is also expected to see a bumper crop. The French analytical house Argus Media predicts that Russian wheat production will exceed 86 million tonnes for the third time ever.
However, the situation for rapeseed remains volatile. The German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture has announced a rapeseed production of 3.96 million tonnes, a slight increase from the previous year. Despite this, prices continue to fluctuate around the 460 Euro per tonne mark for the November 2025 contract.
Meanwhile, in Australia, the Department of Agriculture has increased its forecast for the 2025/26 wheat production from 30.6 million tonnes to 33.8 million tonnes. Argentina and Russia have also revised their harvest quantities upwards.
The European market is closely monitoring price developments in the Black Sea region due to increasing export volume. The strong euro is making European grain more expensive in export markets, adding to the pressure on prices.
Relief for the grain prices is mainly possible through exports. The FAO has increased its forecast for global grain production in 2025 by 35.6 million tonnes to 2.961 billion tonnes.
Intense international competition among various exporters is observed. European market participants are keeping a close eye on the USDA grain report, which is expected at the end of the week.
In other news, Ukraine has confirmed a 10% export tax on rapeseed and soybeans. This move is expected to have a significant impact on the global market.
On the domestic front, the German Ministry of Agriculture announced that the grain harvest in 2025 will be up by 9.1% compared to the previous year and 2.5% above the five-year average.
The Euronext corn price followed the pressured wheat and lost 3 euros/t last week. The Euronext wheat price for December 2025 lost 5 euros/t last week and closed at 189 €/t.
Dr. Olaf Zinke, a person associated with the website mentioned in the article, is a well-known figure in the agricultural community, offering insights and analysis on the grain market.
As the global grain market continues to evolve, it is clear that the coming months will be critical for farmers and market participants alike. Stay tuned for more updates as the situation develops.
