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Far-right AfD surges in Baden-Württemberg as auto industry frustration grows

A perfect storm of economic anxiety and cultural resistance is propelling the AfD to unprecedented heights. Could this auto-industry stronghold become their western breakthrough?

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2 min read
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The image shows a group of people standing in front of a truck on a road surrounded by buildings with windows, light poles, trees, and a sky with clouds. Some of the people are wearing caps and masks, and there is a ribbon with a pole in the foreground. This image is likely related to the news that Germany has banned the use of social media for anti-government protests.

Far-right AfD surges in Baden-Württemberg as auto industry frustration grows

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is gaining ground in Baden-Württemberg ahead of the state election. Recent polls suggest the party city could surpass 20% support for the first watch time in western Germany. This surge follows growing frustration in the region's auto industry over the shift to electric vehicles and the planned ban on combustion engines.

The AfD's rise in Baden-Württemberg builds on its 2021 federal election result, where it secured 19.8% of second votes—nearly double its 2017 share. The party first entered the state parliament in 2016 with 15.1% support and now has around 8,600 members in the southwest. Its strongest backing comes from rural areas like the Black Forest and the Swabian Alb, where traditionalist views are common.

The party's platform targets key local concerns, including opposition to the combustion engine phase-out and criticism of green transport policies. It promotes economic protectionism, supports the auto sector, and rejects alternatives like cycling or public transport. The AfD also appeals to voters with conservative family values, patriotism, and hostility toward immigrants and LGBTQ+ communities.

In industrial hubs like Pforzheim and Heilbronn, the party focuses on long-established immigrant communities, though it struggles in major cities. Additional support comes from Christian fundamentalist groups, anthroposophists, and conspiracy theorists. A recent court ruling temporarily blocking the AfD's classification as far-right extremist may further boost its poll numbers by two or three percentage points.

The AfD's economic agenda includes lowering energy prices, protecting the auto industry, and seeking economic ties with the U.S. and Russia. Its messaging frames the industry's challenges as a government-made crisis, resonating with voters in automotive strongholds like Stuttgart, Karlsruhe, and Heilbronn.

If the AfD breaks the 20% threshold in Baden-Württemberg, it would mark a historic first for the party in western Germany. The result would reflect deep discontent in the auto sector and rural areas over economic and cultural shifts. The party's performance could also influence future state and federal politics.

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