Extreme Indian Heatwave's Occurrence 30-100 Times Increased Due to Climate Change

In the sweltering heat of spring 2022, South Asia has been gripped by an extreme heatwave, with temperatures soaring to unprecedented levels. This prolonged period of intense heat has caused widespread suffering, crop losses, and even led to a ban on wheat exports in India.

The Indian capital, New Delhi, hit a scorching 49C, while neighbouring Pakistan saw temperatures peak at 51C in some regions. These record-breaking temperatures have been made at least 30 times more likely by human-induced climate change, according to a new report by climate attribution researchers.

The heatwave has had a significant impact on India's energy sector. To cope with the looming energy crisis, coal-fired power plants have been ordered to operate at full capacity, undermining the country's decarbonisation efforts and renewable transition. The surge in energy demand has also led to a surge in coal production, with India expanding coal production by 10% to keep up with increased demand. However, tackling the emergency by bypassing its primary cause is not the solution India needs.

The extreme heatwave has also resulted in major crop losses, specifically affecting wheat production. The government's ban on wheat exports due to crop losses has fueled further global food security fears amid the Ukraine war, another major wheat producer and exporter.

Krishna AchutaRao, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology in New Delhi, states that the Indian heatwave started early and lasted long, and it will happen more often as temperatures rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that intense heatwaves will become more frequent and more severe.

The UK's Met Office report finds that the climate crisis has made heatwaves 100 times more likely. In a 2C global temperature increase scenario, the report estimates that these events would become another 2-20 times more likely than in 2022, and 0.5-1.5 C hotter, too. Dr Fahad Saeed, one of the study's researchers, stated that the limits to adaptation are being breached for a large poor population of the region at the present level of global warming.

The World Weather Attribution has published a rapid analysis of the event, highlighting the influence of human-caused global warming on the frequency and severity of heatwaves in South Asia. The ongoing heatwave serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for action to combat climate change and protect our planet from further warming.

As the planet has already warmed around 1.1C since pre-industrial times, we are still on track to exceed 1.5C of warming within the next two decades. Record high heatwaves will become even more frequent not just in South Asia, but around the globe, threatening millions more lives. It is crucial that we take immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to renewable energy sources to prevent such extreme events from becoming the new norm.

Extreme Indian Heatwave's Occurrence 30-100 Times Increased Due to Climate Change