Escalating Geopolitical Shifts: Insights into Iran's Drone Exports to Russia
Iran has reportedly sent trainers and tactical advisers from the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to Crimea to assist with mechanical problems and facilitate drone launchings. This move comes as part of a larger geopolitical shift, as Iran sees an opportunity to push back against U.S. interests and to bleed an American ally that has made unexpected gains in recent months.
The Iranian Shahed-136 drones, nicknamed "lawn mowers" or "mopeds," have been raining destruction on Ukraine's critical infrastructure such as power grids, electricity substations, water pipelines, rail lines, dams, and more. These drones, with a warhead of around 80 pounds that explodes on impact and costing merely $20,000, are part of Moscow's objective to spread fear and intimidation, undercut Ukrainian morale, and compel the government into submission.
However, the mental effect of the drone campaign has been unnerving, but the psychological impact is likely to be low. This is a pattern that has been observed in previous conflicts where drone strikes have been used.
Meanwhile, Turkey, a key player in the global drone market, has been making significant strides in drone technology. Turkey's government has invested millions of dollars to support the continued development of Baykar's TB2 drone, committing $105 million worth of additional funding in 2019. The TB2 drone, developed by Baykar Technologies, has achieved a series of milestones, including developing the ability to carry out satellite-controlled airstrikes, completing the first flight using a domestically produced engine, and continuously flying drones for more than twenty-four hours.
Turkey's ambitions for its drones extend beyond fighting organizations. As evidence, Turkey has used drones in Libya, Azerbaijan, and Ethiopia. Moreover, Turkey has also used drones to conduct aerial raids against groups fighting for Kurdish causes in at least eleven provinces in the southeast of the country since 2019.
The ties between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bayraktar, the founder of Baykar, run deep, with Bayraktar marrying Erdogan's youngest daughter in May 2016. This close relationship has likely contributed to the government's support for Baykar's drone development.
The expansion of UAV manufacturing and export is a global trend. In the last five years, countries involved in this expansion include Germany, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Spain, India, and several NATO partners. Companies like Quantum Systems are expanding globally and entering markets such as the UK and India. Additionally, the Asia-Pacific region, including India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia, has seen growth in UAV production and technology due to rising defense budgets and regional security needs.
In conclusion, the use of drones in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine highlights the increasing importance of drone technology in modern warfare. The involvement of countries like Iran and Turkey underscores the global nature of this technology and the need for international dialogue and regulations to ensure its ethical and responsible use.
