Escalating emissions from agricultural machinery may impede China's aspiration for zero-emission targets.
In a recent study published in Nature Food, researchers have highlighted the growing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from agricultural machinery in China. The study, which analysed government statistics on the quantity and power of farm equipment over the past three decades, revealed that agricultural machinery has contributed significantly to China's overall increase in emissions.
The growth in CO2 emissions from agricultural machinery has posed challenges to China's emissions reduction goals, particularly its aim to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Agricultural machinery, classified as non-road mobile sources, emit CO2 that adds to urban and regional pollution, making it difficult to improve air quality and meet national targets for greenhouse gas mitigation.
The rising emissions from agricultural machinery and other mobile sources complicate these targets because they contribute significantly to total emissions and are harder to control without targeted strategies. Furthermore, increased emissions from agricultural machinery exacerbate local and regional air quality problems by contributing to pollutants that affect human health and environmental quality.
To mitigate emissions from agricultural machinery, China could implement several strategies. These include developing source-specific emission inventories, promoting cleaner technologies and alternative fuels, enhancing operational efficiency, integrating carbon farming practices, and strengthening regulations and incentive policies.
The study found that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from agricultural machinery in China have increased approximately seven-fold since 1985. The total farm equipment CO2 emissions have grown from around 23 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) in 1985 to nearly 160MtCO2 in 2020, growing annually by a rate of 5.7%. Five provinces in eastern and north-eastern China - Shandong, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Anhui - account for more than 40% of agricultural machinery emissions.
The increasing level of mechanisation dominates the change in CO2 emissions, with changes alone responsible for a 100% increase in emissions over 1985-2000. However, it's worth noting that Ritchie, a researcher, is skeptical that the relative contributions of agricultural machinery will be as high as 21% in 2050, suggesting that China's progress in reducing emissions from other sectors may also impact agricultural machinery emissions.
The researchers also calculated the machinery-related emissions of three types of air pollutants: fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and total hydrocarbons (THC). They break the emissions down to the province level, finding a large range of agricultural machinery emissions among provinces.
The study suggests that effective mitigation of these emissions will require different strategies in the short- and long-term future. In the near term, biofuels and natural gas will play an important role over the coming decade. In the longer term, renewable energy sources, as well as green hydrogen, have the largest mitigation potential. Previous work has shown that using automated equipment, electric tractors, and renewable energy sources can reduce agricultural emissions by 90%.
The researchers relied on data from the China Statistical Yearbook for their study, which provides annual statistics on a wide range of socioeconomic indicators. The study's findings underscore the importance of addressing agricultural emissions to support China's broader emissions reduction and air quality improvement goals. Unabated continued growth of agricultural mechanisation could compromise China's efforts to achieve its "dual-carbon" goals, as food systems are responsible for around one-third of human-driven greenhouse gas emissions.
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