China's Commitment to Fulfilling Climate Pledge in Question

China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is facing a significant challenge in meeting its 2030 commitment to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy. The country's carbon intensity, a measure of CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, has been growing rather than decreasing, a trend that is causing concern among climate experts and policymakers.

From 2005 to 2020, China made significant strides in reducing its carbon intensity, achieving a decrease of 48.4%. However, progress has slowed significantly in recent years. From 2021 to 2024, the reduction has averaged just 2% per year, a pace that is far from the 5% annual reduction required from 2024 to 2030 to meet the 2030 commitment.

The solar and wind industry associations expect new capacity additions to remain at high levels achieved in 2023-24, with wind capacity to increase further. However, the ongoing rapid build-out of new coal power plants poses a risk of crowding out clean energy, especially as electricity prices for clean-energy producers are no longer guaranteed.

To meet the 2030 carbon-intensity commitment, the clean-energy boom needs to keep going for the next five years, and the growth rate of energy consumption needs to cool to pre-Covid-19 rates. The government is building a "dual control" system covering absolute carbon emissions and emissions intensity, which will involve introducing an absolute emissions target for 2030 in the next five-year plan period.

The new electricity pricing policy for renewable energy removes price guarantees and offers more favorable pricing for the amount of new capacity needed to meet central government energy targets. This policy is expected to incentivise the growth of renewable energy and help China achieve its carbon-intensity targets.

The government's current work plan focuses on achieving the "dual carbon" goals: peaking CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. China's goal for the CO2 reduction quota in the next Five-Year Plan period is to achieve a significant decrease in carbon intensity and advance towards peak carbon emissions before 2030.

However, China's carbon-intensity targets have been assessed as "insufficient" by Climate Action Tracker. Setting a more ambitious carbon-intensity target in the next five-year plan period than the one that China is bound to miss during the current period is essential to meet the 2030 carbon-intensity commitment.

The lack of progress on reducing energy intensity is not only a concern for climate and air pollution emissions, but also for realizing and measuring "high-quality growth", the central aim of China's economic policy. After the election of Donald Trump in the US, China's leadership emphasised its determination to respond to the climate threat.

Supporting the large amount of new solar and wind installations requires addressing bottlenecks in the power grid, particularly by making the operation of power plants and transmission lines more flexible. As of now, the gap between the 2025 carbon-intensity target and reality is almost certainly too large to bridge. Delivering China's headline commitment under the Paris Agreement will be difficult after several years of not making much headway.

In conclusion, China faces a significant challenge in meeting its 2030 carbon-intensity commitment. The government's focus on renewable energy, new electricity pricing policies, and the "dual control" system are steps in the right direction. However, more ambitious targets, addressing power grid bottlenecks, and a continued focus on clean energy are necessary to achieve the desired reduction in carbon intensity.