China's appeasement won't foil India's strategies against Donald Trump's policies

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is planning a diplomatic visit to China in an attempt to ease tensions between the two nations. This move comes amidst a complex web of geopolitical maneuvers, as both countries navigate their relationships with other world powers.

From 2014, when Modi became Prime Minister with a mission to improve Sino-Indian relations, the dynamics between India and China have been marked by a series of events that have tested the boundaries of diplomacy. In 2014, Chinese troops encroached on an Indian borderland during Modi's welcome of Chinese President Xi Jinping, remaining until India dismantled its defensive fortifications.

Over the years, China steadily tightened its strategic axis with Pakistan, erecting militarized "border villages" along India's frontier and expanding its high-altitude military infrastructure. This was evident in 2017, when China's 2017 seizure of the strategic Himalayan plateau of Doklam went unchallenged by Modi, despite multiple meetings with Xi.

Modi's approach of allowing China to profit from Indian markets while China chips away at India's sovereignty and security has been met with criticism. Some argue that this conveys a willingness to be treated as a doormat. This sentiment was further fuelled when Modi delisted China as a "country of concern" in 2014 to attract Chinese investment, only to receive a flood of cheap Chinese imports.

The border crisis between India and China reached a boiling point in 2020, leading to clashes in their Himalayan borderlands and a prolonged military standoff. Despite this, Modi's initial efforts to improve Sino-Indian relations might not have been misguided, but his refusal to change course in the face of Chinese territorial advances was.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump's actions towards India risk driving India closer to China, repeating a mistake made with Russia. Trump has imposed punishing tariffs on US imports from India, raising them to 50%. This move is seen as an attempt to strong-arm India into a lopsided trade deal. However, Trump's tariffs may inadvertently push India towards China, as India seeks alternative trading partners.

Trump's attempts to woo Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Ukraine war and distance himself from China could also have unintended consequences for India. Russia, traditionally a key ally of India, has historically sold less energy to India than China or Europe.

The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by China's recent confirmation of plans to build the world's largest dam adjacent to India's border, with grave ecological and national-security implications for India. This move, along with China's critical support for Pakistan during India's targeted strikes on Pakistani terrorist camps in May 2020, highlights the potential risks of India becoming too reliant on China.

In a bid to engage China amid ongoing boundary talks, India is expected to use the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 as a diplomatic platform. The summit, held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, provides an opportunity for India to advance dialogue and possibly ease tensions by engaging China within the multilateral framework of the SCO.

As India and China navigate their complex relationship, Modi must be cautious not to let Trump push India into China's arms. China may exploit any hint of Indian weaknesses rather than act as a reliable partner. The future of Sino-Indian relations hangs in the balance, with the potential for either increased cooperation or continued conflict.

China's appeasement won't foil India's strategies against Donald Trump's policies