Casinos Suffer Financial Losses Due to Clever Video Poker Strategies, According to Research Findings
In a recent study conducted by Todd Shriber @etfgodfather, the impact of advantage players (APs) on casino profits, particularly in the realm of video poker, was examined. The study, which was carried out between March 21, 2024, and March 31, 2025, used the Video Poker Analyzer tool from Acres Manufacturing Company.
The research revealed that APs, who exploit video poker machines with low house edges, collectively caused a loss to the casino equivalent to 25.64% of its carded win on video poker during the study period. Over two-thirds of these APs profited from their play, accounting for 26% of video poker coin-in, indicating a significant contribution to the casino's income.
However, casinos are not passive in the face of this challenge. They employ various strategies to identify and mitigate the impact of advantage players. These include managing pay tables to favour machines with house edges slightly above zero, making it harder for players to find full-pay machines. Casinos also use player tracking technology, surveillance, and software controls to monitor and flag advantage players.
Modern casinos use player tracking technology linked to loyalty cards and surveillance to identify players who consistently win or play advanced strategies that reduce house advantage. This allows casinos to monitor and flag advantage players for further observation or intervention. Casinos maintain physical and electronic surveillance to monitor player behaviour, looking for advantage play tactics, including optimal video poker strategy use.
Casinos also use casino management software that analyses play patterns and results to detect when a player is winning unusually frequently or making statistically optimal decisions indicative of advantage play. Game configurations and software controls are also updated to adjust pay tables and limit maximum bets to reduce the impact of advantage players.
In Las Vegas, video poker is a staple at locals' casinos. Despite APs comprising only 1% of casino guests, they can have a substantial impact on profits. Interestingly, the casino's loyalty program rewarded each AP significantly more than higher margin players, suggesting a strategic approach to retain these valuable players.
The study, which examined three million hands played by 1,000 APs in the Las Vegas locals' market, found that tech is crucial in leveling the playing field with highly skilled video poker players. Deploying Acres' Video Poker Analyzer may result in more than a 45% upside to a casino's video poker profits.
The findings of this study highlight the complex interplay between casinos and advantage players. While APs can impact casino profits, casinos employ a range of strategies to detect and mitigate their impact, ensuring the long-term profitability of gaming operations.
In fiscal 2023, Nevada casinos generated nearly $30 billion in sales, underscoring the importance of understanding and managing factors that influence casino profits. As gaming devices, including video poker machines, continue to be added in recent years, sometimes at the expense of table games, the role of technology in maintaining a level playing field becomes increasingly significant.
- The study conducted by Todd Shriber @etfgodfather focused on the impact of advantage players on casino profits, particularly in the casino-and-gambling industry of Las Vegas, specifically in casino-games like video poker.
- In the reviewed period, APs collectively caused a loss to the casino equivalent to 25.64% of its carded win on video poker, with over two-thirds of these APs profiting from their play and accounting for 26% of video poker coin-in.
- Casinos in Las Vegas, and elsewhere, have strategies to identify and mitigate the impact of advantage players, such as managing pay tables, player tracking technology, surveillance, software controls, and casino management software that analyses play patterns and results.
- In Las Vegas, video poker is a key part of the gaming business for locals' casinos, and while APs comprise only 1% of casino guests, they can have a substantial impact on profits.
- The study found that tech, like the Video Poker Analyzer from Acres Manufacturing Company, plays a crucial role in leveling the playing field with highly skilled video poker players, potentially resulting in over a 45% upside to a casino's video poker profits.
- The interplay between casinos and advantage players is complex, as APs can impact casino profits, but casinos employ a range of strategies to detect and mitigate their impact, ensuring the long-term profitability of the casino-culture and gaming operations, given the high revenue generated by Nevada casinos annually.
