Betting Odds Predict Probabilities for the Next Pope Candidate
Posted on: May 6, 2025, 06:54h.
Last updated on: May 6, 2025, 07:22h.
Meet the Front-Runners Battle for the Next Pope's Throne
Get the inside scoop on the betting odds of potential Popes
It's almost time for the College of Cardinals to gather in the iconic Sistine Chapel for their confidential election β the papal conclave. Scheduled to start tomorrow, here's a rundown of the top contenders leading the race according to betting markets.
The High-Stakes Voting Game
This exclusive gathering of 133 cardinals under 80 years old will debate, discuss, and vote for their preferred candidate to become the next leader of the Catholic Church. The election process continues until a candidate receives a two-thirds majority, potentially making history with a new Pope in just a few hours or extending the process for weeks.
Who's the Pick?
Scanning through the betting markets this morning brings some clear frontrunners to light.
Canadian online casino BetMGM gives Pietro Parolin from Italy an edge at +225, followed by Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines at +300, and Matteo Maria Zuppi, again from Italy, at +600.
Curious about American cardinals? Raymond Leo Burke may have the shortest odds among them at +3300. Keep an eye on Timothy Dolan and Kevin Farrell, both standing at +5000.
John Ewing from BetMGM shares his insights, stating, "Pietro Parolin initially opened at +250 and has moved to +225 since, with 23.3% of bets and 32.4% of money put on Parolin to be the next Pope."
The Bookies' Predictions
David Merry, a trader with BetVictor, reveals, "Experience shows that Pope betting is well-received in the UK, but we've seen no bets yet from Canada. We've had thirty different cardinals backed so far, and Peter Turkson is the most popular, who started at 10/1 and is now 11/2."
In contrast, the prediction markets have Parolin leading the pack with a 26% chance, respectably backed by 1.19 million votes. Tagle and Zuppi are both nipping at his heels with percentages around 23% (1.4 million and 1.0 million votes, respectively).
At Kalshi, Parolin retains the top position with 26%, while Tagle and Zuppi share the runner-up spot at 22% each.
Remember, betting markets don't always dictate the final outcome, as the papal conclave is a complex process with numerous variables at play within the Catholic Church. Keep a close watch on the drama unfolding!
- The upcoming papal conclave, set to take place in the Sistine Chapel tomorrow, will see 133 cardinals, aged under 80, debating, discussing, and voting for their preferred candidate to become the next leader of the Catholic Church.
- The sports betting market favors Pietro Parolin from Italy at +225, followed closely by Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines at +300 and Matteo Maria Zuppi, also from Italy, at +600.
- In the realm of American cardinals, Raymond Leo Burke has the shortest odds at +3300, while Timothy Dolan and Kevin Farrell both have odds of +5000.
- According to John Ewing from BetMGM, bets on Pietro Parolin have increased since his initial odds of +250, with a significant portion of bets and money being placed on him to be the next Pope.
- The prediction market at BetVictor shows Peter Turkson as the most popular cardinal among UK bettors, with odds that have shifted from 10/1 to 11/2.
- At Kalshi, Pietro Parolin maintains the leading position with a 26% chance, followed closely by Luis Antonio Tagle and Matteo Maria Zuppi, who both share the runner-up spot with 22% each. Although betting markets can provide insight, they do not definitively predict the final outcome of the papal conclaveβa complex process influenced by numerous variables within the Catholic Church.
