baseball predictions by Steve Makinen based on betting statistics and methods for August 23rd in MLB
In today's MLB action, several interesting betting trends have emerged based on historical data. Here are some key trends to consider.
Tyler Glasnow, pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers, has struggled as a short road favorite in the last six seasons, with a record of just 5-11 and a win loss unit loss of -9.65. However, the Dodgers face the San Diego Padres today, and the trend for this matchup is to fade the Dodgers, who are priced at -132.
The trend for the Cleveland Indians versus Texas Rangers game (o/u at 8.5) suggests playing under. Teams with poor bullpens and a poor starting pitcher have struggled when not matched up against the same, going 123-218 for -25.67 units. The Rangers, with a negative SM rating, are facing a poor starting pitcher, while the Indians have a strong bullpen.
The trend for the Boston Red Sox versus New York Yankees game (o/u at 8.5) also suggests playing under. Both teams have performed well under the total in their home games this season, with Boston at 36-26-1 (+7.40 units) and the Yankees at 41-22-1 (+16.80 units).
The Houston Astros have been a solid bet as a ML underdog this season, with a record of 20-14 and a win loss unit gain of +11.34. Today, they face the Baltimore Orioles, and the trend for this matchup is to play Houston, who are priced at -101.
The trend for the Texas Rangers versus Cleveland Indians game (-126 for Texas) suggests playing Texas. Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game have performed well since the start of the 2018 season, with a record of 319-281 (53.2%) for +25.02 units and an ROI of 4.2%.
The trend for the Seattle Mariners versus Athletics game (-178 for Seattle) suggests playing Seattle. George Kirby has been impressive in his last eight starts against the Athletics, with a record of 7-1 and a win loss unit gain of +5.20.
The trend for the Atlanta Braves versus New York Mets game (-101 for Atlanta) suggests fading the Braves. The Braves have struggled as a ML underdog this season, with a record of 9-22 and a win loss unit loss of -10.88.
The trend for the Miami Marlins versus Toronto Blue Jays game (-143 for Toronto) suggests fading Toronto. Teams with strong bullpens and a poor starting pitcher have struggled when not matched up against the same, going 137-190 for -52.24 units. The Marlins have a strong bullpen, while the Blue Jays have a poor starting pitcher.
The trend for the Milwaukee Brewers versus San Francisco Giants game (-144 for Milwaukee) suggests playing Milwaukee. The Brewers have the best home record in MLB this season, with a record of 43-20 and a win loss unit gain of +16.85.
The trend for the Baltimore Orioles versus Houston Astros game (-120 for Baltimore) suggests playing Baltimore. BAL is 33-16 (+12.68 units) in the last 49 home games with starter Dean Kremer.
The trend for the Colorado Rockies versus Pittsburgh Pirates game (+152 for Colorado) suggests fading the Rockies. The Rockies have struggled in the last 37 road games with starter Kyle Freeland, going 11-26 (-7.76 units).
The trend for the Chicago White Sox versus Minnesota Twins game (-111 for Chicago) is a system match recommended by AJ Makinen.
Nestor Cortes is 10-3 (+8.74 units) as an underdog in the last four seasons. However, the trend for the New York Yankees versus Miami Marlins game (-143 for New York) suggests fading the Yankees.
The top MLB betting trend for today is that the under is 46-23-2 (+20.70 units) when the Cincinnati Reds are a ML favorite this season. The Reds face the Arizona Diamondbacks today, and the trend for this matchup is to play under, with an o/u of 9.
Teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have performed well since the start of the 2024 season, going 180-112 for +48.59 units, and an ROI of 16.6%. The Chicago White Sox, who fit this trend, face the Minnesota Twins today.
The San Diego Padres are the most profitable team in day games this season, with a record of 30-24 and a win loss unit gain of +14.21. Today, they face the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the trend for this matchup is to play San Diego, who are priced at +108.
