Donald Trump's 2024 chances improve after skipping first Republican debate
Republicans held their first 2024 presidential primary debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, hosted by "Fox News." Political bettors said the winner of the two-hour extravaganza was the "elephant not in the room," former President Donald Trump.
Trump maintains a decisive lead in polls and online betting trades to secure Republican votes in 2024 and challenge current President and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Trump leads a distant second-place finisher, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by 41 points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average.
The 45th president of the United States skipped the showdown with Fox News, which had eight candidates, as he held the lead. Trump instead chatted with former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson, who was abruptly fired from the cable news organization in April. Carlson has since moved his newscasts to X, a social media platform formerly known as Twitter.
Despite Trump's absence, the Republican debate was lively and sometimes heated. Experts said afterward that each of the leading candidates had their moments. But the consensus seemed to confirm that DeSantis, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley were the winners.
Quota changes
Political betting in sports betting remains banned in the United States. However, online betting exchanges allow those who believe they can better predict the outcome of the election to place bets against each other. Sites like PredictIt allow players to bet up to $850 on the outcome of the election by buying and selling stocks.
PredictIt's legality remains disputed in court. But the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit issued a preliminary injunction last month, allowing the platform to continue operating while the case continues. While the eight candidates took to the stage last night to appeal to American voters, political punters saw a chaotic and sometimes violent back-and-forth that saw Ramaswamy's political inexperience and youth often targeted. It will only help Trump's chances in 2024.
On the PredictIt market, which asks which Republican will win the party's 2024 nomination, Trump's stock price has risen 2 cents to 60 cents since the debate. Meanwhile, Ramaswamy's price was steady at 18 cents.DeSantis shares fell 2 cents to 14 cents.
Haley's stock didn't change either; in a distant community it was six cents. There were no other candidates on the table last night whose stocks were trading at nickels or higher.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie lost 1 penny to 4 cents, while Trump's former vice president, Mike Pence, was more confrontational than usual, adding 1 penny, but Still at 3 cents.
General Vote Campaign
Even though the first Republican debate was a no-show, it was also a victory for Trump's chances of regaining the White House. While Biden remains the favorite in 2024, with PredictIt bettors giving him about a 43% chance of winning re-election, Trump's shares were up 2 cents with an implied chance of about 30%.
Ramaswamy also sees his chances of winning the presidency diminish. Its shares rose 4 cents in 2024, representing an implied gain of 11%.
The next Republican primary debate is scheduled for September 27. Only time will tell whether Trump will take the stage to address his challengers and American voters. Trump faces 91 felony counts in the four indictments filed against him.
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Source: www.casino.org
