Donald Trump is basically a sure thing for Iowa Republican caucuses
Former President Donald Trump was expected to be the big winner Monday night as voters made their voices heard for the first time in the 2024 primary.
Iowa is the first federal state to hold a primary in this presidential election. Accustomed to cold January temperatures and snowy winters, Iowans braved historically cold weather Monday night to head to high schools and community centers for the nation's first caucuses.
Trump, who is hoping to represent the Republican Party in the presidential election for a third consecutive time, was the favorite to win on Monday night. Traders at political betting exchange PredictIt give it 45. The President has a 96% chance of receiving the most votes.
In a final appeal to Iowa voters yesterday, Trump said it was time to make their voices louder than "all the liars, liars, thugs, perverts, liars and liars."
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has the second-highest odds, with an implied probability of just 6 percent. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy came in third with 2%, followed by former South Carolina governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley at just 1 pence. ranked fourth in the vote share.
Pre-selection meeting process
Republicans and Democrats are approaching the Iowa caucuses in very different ways.
Democrats ask voters to show up to their caucuses to support fellow Iowans for a specific candidate, while Republicans first hold town halls where members of specific communities give final campaign speeches on behalf of their preferred candidates. After these speeches, caucus participants receive ballots and make their choices in secret.
Ballots will be collected, verified and counted, and results will be posted on the state Republican Party's website. The Iowa caucuses begin at 7 p.m. CT.
While each candidate hopes to "rage Trump" and win, political experts believe DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy are essentially vying for second place. A second-place finish would be a major victory for either candidate because Iowa determines its 40 Republican delegates based on the share of caucus votes each candidate receives.
Smarkets, a peer-to-peer political betting exchange, predicts a 94% chance of Trump winning the most delegates on Monday night. While Trump may begin his re-election campaign with a victory, he is claiming his success as a vote against the Washington, D.C. establishment and many federal prosecutors and lawmakers who are seeking to prosecute him for the January 6, 2021 An insurrection that would have put him in jail, the final second place increased his chances of becoming Trump's main opponent in this primary.
Iowa Democrats cancel caucus
Voting in Iowa on Monday will be heavily Republican, as the Iowa Democratic Party has decided to bypass its regular caucus in favor of an exclusive mail-in voting system that will last until Super Tuesday this year. 5 days). Starting Monday, Democratic voters in Iowa can cast their primary ballots by mail.
President Joe Biden faces no serious challenger in the race. He is expected to receive all 46 of Iowa's delegate votes.
Notably, Iowa allows voters to change party affiliation on Election Day. With many Democrats in Iowa concerned about Trump's reelection as president, political observers in the Hawkeye State expect Democratic factions to use the option to shift primary Republican support to one of Trump's three challengers.
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