Debunking Las Vegas Beliefs: Roulette Colors Aren't Guaranteed to Win
EDITOR'S NOTE: A new "Vegas Myths Busted" is published every Monday, with a bonus Flashback Friday edition. Today's edition was originally published on Aug. 19, 2022.
The misconception that multiple red numbers hitting in a row leads to a black number being more likely on the next spin is a common belief. Even though you know this isn't true, it can be hard to ignore the temptation to learn something different when a black number does show up.
This myth is often used by gamblers trying to predict the next big win. However, Anthony Lucas, a casino management professor at UNLV and former gaming industry operations analyst, confirms that this is just another widespread fallacy. It all comes down to a straightforward mathematics lesson.
A popular misconception is that there must be an immediate correction in the short term when long-term averages are involved in a random process. It's simply how our brains are programmed.
There's no increase in the likelihood of landing on red, even if you've landed on black ten times previously. The odds reset with each spin, so your chances of landing on red during the first spin or the twentieth are identical.
The Power of Our Brains
Our brains have evolved to identify patterns in the environment, which helps us make educated choices. Pattern recognition is also critical for our survival. For example, if we hear a loud noise in a bush, our prehistoric ancestors might have anticipated a predator's presence since similar encounters had occurred previously.
However, our tendency to spot patterns can also lead to false assumptions or identifying patterns where none exist. In roulette, our brains attempt to perceive a pattern, such as "you'll land on black after landing on red." This is simply an example of incorrect pattern recognition.
Casinos know that many individuals believe in this superstition and use digital display boards to highlight consecutive outcomes for players, exacerbating this pattern recognition mindset.
Streaks do occur, but they are normal in any random process.
The Deception of Red and Black
Ray, a friend since childhood, once believed he had a system for winning at roulette. He'd show me every roulette table in the casino he was staying at, betting on the other color once he spotted four or five consecutive red or black spins.
Ray consistently had successful sessions, despite the consistent red or black spins. Each time, he'd boast about his strategy while urging me to join him.
According to Lucas, this behavior is similar to the previously debunked myth of winning at slot machines. Both involve drawing from a set of options more than once.
What most gamblers seem to lack understanding of, or simply refuse to accept, is that outcomes from independent and identically distributed variables often feature extended streaks of one color or even numbers. This is normal, and there is no immediate requirement for self-correction.
These short-term imbalances invariably even out in the long term. In roulette, red and black will appear in equal measure on average. Short-term events are the only time gamblers can participate in the game.
The Reality of Bad Luck
I entered the casino one day to find Ray fighting to regain composure on the casino floor. His face was flushed, and he was pacing like a caged animal. He'd lost a lot of money but refused to admit the amount to me for years.
"Don't worry, I'll get it back," he assured me. This was when I discovered that Ray's strategy was to double down after every loss, a method known as the Martingale betting system, which also fails to produce results.
Luckily, Ray's loss only cost him $5,000 before he realized that the most effective strategy in Las Vegas is the one that ensures the casino has a tiny edge in the long run. This might have been the last time he played roulette.
"Your friend is fortunate," Lucas said. "In a sense, things might have turned out worse for him."
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Source: www.casino.org
