Biden's State of the Union Address Provides a Wager Advantage, Yet Trump Remains Favorite
In a recent development, President Joe Biden's chances of getting reelected in 2024 have increased slightly after his State of the Union address on Thursday night. This was generally perceived as a strong performance by the 81-year-old.
During his speech, Biden passionately emphasized the strength of the union and requested the public's support for a second term by highlighting his accomplishments. He also criticized his predecessor for the January 6 insurrection and lashed out at the Supreme Court judges present, for overturning Roe v. Wade.
During the address, Biden managed to maintain focus despite a few interruptions. Firstly, when one parent of a Marine killed in Afghanistan shouted during Biden's speech, and then, when a few people present misheard his mention of Laken Riley and believed he said "Lincoln" Riley. As Biden's mental capabilities have been raised as a question before, his performance was closely watched by viewers to assess his capabilities in the face of the most widespread audience reach he's had.
Following this address, political betting exchanges like Smarkets have seen Biden's 2024 odds increase. Before the SOTU, Biden had around a 32% chance of winning in November, according to Smarkets bettors. But now, his stock has climbed to over 34%. Additionally, his chances of being the Democratic nominee have increased from 76% to 80%. At UK sportsbooks, where political betting is allowed, William Hill has Biden at 1/5, which translates to an 83.3% implied chance of winning his party's ticket for a second time.
Despite the boost Biden's speech has brought him, former President Donald Trump still leads in the polls for 2024. Trump has an overall 48.5% chance of winning on November 5. His overseas odds are 5/6, which indicates an implied probability of 54.5%.
Perhaps the biggest gain from Biden's speech was addressing concerns about his age. "My fellow Americans, the issue facing our nation isn't how old we are — it's how old our ideas are," he said towards the end of his address. "Hate, anger, revenge, and retribution are the oldest of ideas. You can't lead America with ancient ideas that only take us back," he declared.
Biden additionally condemned Trump for his refusal to leave the White House after losing the 2020 election. “My predecessor and some of you here seek to bury the truth about January 6. I will not do that. Here’s the simple truth: you can’t love your country only when you win,” Biden said.
However, the latest polls compiled by Real Clear Politics indicate that Trump is leading with a 1.8-point advantage over Biden. In only four of the 12 polls included in the composite, Biden is ahead. The Harvard-Harris and NY Times/Siena polls show Trump leading by six points. Biden's biggest lead comes from the Quinnipiac poll, where he's winning by four points.
Of course, Trump didn't see Biden's SOTU performance in a positive light. He posted on his Truth Social media platform: "Crooked Joe Biden is on the run from his record and lying like crazy to try and escape accountability for the horrific devastation he and his party have created."
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