Biden confronts the longing for Trump's earlier presidency.
The potential GOP nominee is making progress in unifying the Republican party as they support him during his ongoing New York trial for political persecution. Even former Attorney General William Barr, once against Trump's presence in the Oval Office, declared his support. Recently, Trump met with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a GOP primary rival, for several hours. Meanwhile, Biden is struggling to maintain the trust of his own coalition, particularly younger voters.
Six months before the election, a turbulent political environment presents challenges for two flawed candidates. Issues vary from discontent with the economy, to abortion rights, as well as concerns over Biden's leadership at home and abroad during a time of high inflation and massive campus protests against Israel's war in Gaza.
The unconventional spectacle of the potential next president facing multiple criminal indictments, including a possible verdict in Manhattan's hush money case, while attempting a political comeback raises questions about its impact on the election.
As for RFK Jr., the independence candidate, his impact on the race remains unclear, but Trump seems increasingly concerned about his run.
Fading Memories of Trump's White House Chaos
A recent CNN poll shows that Biden faces immense pressure to remind voters of the chaos in Trump's single presidential term, which ended with erratic leadership in a severe pandemic. However, it seems to some that his legacy was one of economic stability. Currently, 55% of Americans see Trump's presidency as a success, compared to 44% previously. Conversely, 61% consider Biden's presidency a failure, with 39% embracing it as successful.
Biden's previous position, challenging Trump from the outside, has changed. He vowed to "overcome this season of darkness" and choose "hope over fear, facts over fiction, fairness over privilege." However, Trump is now exploiting Biden's governance for his election campaign. Biden portrays a nation in disarray, constantly predicting doom as he faced multiple trials in Manhattan.
With inflation still higher than during Trump's office, the economic crisis remains a powerful argument for Trump. He emphasizes the declining economy with "The economy's falling apart now. Now you're seeing it, very little growth, it's going to get worse. Oil prices are going up, and you have the college campuses all over closed down. Our country's going to hell," he said. Inflation has decreased since its peak, but it's still higher than during Trump's tenure. Biden's approval on the economy is 34%, with approval on inflation much lower at 29%. Voters now place more emphasis on economic concerns than they did in previous elections.
Another area of vulnerability for Biden is his handling of Israel's war in Gaza. 71% disapprove of his leadership on the issue. A notable concern comes from young voters, aged 35 and below, who remark 81% disapproval over the war. Republican leaders focus on college campus protests, with their strong support for Israel clashing with deep-seated divisions within the Democratic coalition. This may lead to a lack of enthusiasm for Biden in swing states.
Biden is trying to navigate a political quagmire, balancing his political interests and what he perceives as US national interests, against his support for Israel. In a bid to prevent a major incident in Gaza, he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, emphasizing his opposition to an Israeli incursion into Rafah. Critics fear the potential civilian casualties could worsen Biden's political exposure there.
In recent polls, the support levels for Donald Trump and Joe Biden, in a one-on-one matchup, are virtually the same as in January. Many poll averages show this race as a statistical tie. Interestingly, CBS News published a report on Sunday that shows Biden and Trump at a draw in crucial swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - all of which decided the previous election. Biden won these states in 2020, whereas Trump won them in 2016 over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Some Republicans believe that the dynamics of this election are in favor of Trump, despite his legal issues. Senator Lindsey Graham, a top Trump supporter, said in an interview that people were looking at the problems, not Trump's legal issues. As per the CNN poll, most Republicans are backing Trump, even though former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is still getting votes from GOP primary members. Haley dropped out in March.
The poll also seems to show that Trump has more control over his party than Biden does over his. Ninety-two percent of Republicans view Trump's term in office as a success, while seventy-three percent of Democrats consider Biden's successful. Eighty-five percent of Democrats support Biden, but ninety-one percent of Republicans support Trump.
One of Trump's unique achievements has been his ability to quash GOP opposition and force those looking to build a political career or remain in the party to bow down to him. Governor Ron DeSantis, who previously had clashed with Trump, recently met with the former president for breakfast, according to CNN reporters Kristen Holmes and Kit Maher.
Also, former Attorney General Bill Barr, who had rejected Trump's electoral fraud claims during his attempt to overturn the election results, said in an interview that he would vote for Trump, arguing that Biden and the progressives pose a greater threat to democracy. Barr stated that Biden and the progressives wanted to dictate the types of stoves and cars people could use. "Yeah, those are the threats to democracy," he added.
Similarly, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, a Haley supporter, stated publicly that he would vote for Trump even if he were a convicted felon.
Despite Biden claiming that Trump's attempts to overturn election results in 2020 pose a threat to democracy and making it a cornerstone of his campaign, the chances of Trump facing any accountability appear minimal. Two trials - one federal and one in Georgia - have stalled, with the former president attempting to overturn the election result. The president continues to warn about the erosion of political freedoms that Americans once took for granted. "Every single one of us has a role to play, a serious role to play, in making sure democracy endures. American democracy," Biden said at the White House Correspondents' Dinner on Saturday night.
Biden's presidency has seen many successes, according to traditional metrics. He oversaw the return of low unemployment post-pandemic, allied the West to support Ukraine against Russian aggression, and presided over a successful operation to protect Israel against a Russian attack. He's passed considerable legislation, and rivals some of his recent predecessors in terms of legislative achievements, including a bipartisan infrastructure law that predecessor Trump failed to enact. Yet, despite these achievements, he's not gaining the recognition from voters as he should. Despite Trump being the first ex-president to be indicted, with charges of bank fraud, currently caught up in a porn star hush money trial, and generally disgraced, the election is a close race. "Saturday Night Live" comedian Colin Jost highlighted this reality, saying at the correspondents' dinner, "The Republican candidate for president owes half a billion in fines for bank fraud and is currently spending his days ... (in) a porn star hush money trial and the race is tied? Nothing makes sense anymore." The audience seemed to find it comical, but outside the circles of political elites and media, Trump has a strong base of support among tens of millions of Americans who would like to see him return to the White House.
Read also:
Source: edition.cnn.com
