Analysis of gambling research critiques by the Health Ministry: What is the trustworthiness of gambling dependency stats in Germany?
At the year-end of 2023, the Federal Ministry of Health (BMG) announced a significant rise in gambling addicts in Germany. Critics have been pointing fingers at the study's authenticity for quite some time. Even the opposition has raised severe allegations about the ministry's methodology.
Questionable Research Process Following Change in Commission
Prior to 2019, the Federal Center for Health Education (BZgA) handled the Gambling Survey, released every two years, as stated in the industry publication games & business.
Currently, the research commission is managed by the Hamburg Institute for Interdisciplinary Addiction and Drug Research (ISD) and the University of Bremen. Surprisingly, these researchers were directly ordered to create the Gambling Atlas, another study funded by the BMG, bypassing any tender process.
The study's shocking finding – a jump from 0.7% to around 8% in people exhibiting risky gambling behavior – has sparked controversy. Although there were no substantial reasons provided for this significant shift, the data itself remained inaccessible, as pointed out by WELT author Elke Bodderas in her video piece.
Serious Misconduct Charges from the Opposition
CDU MP Simone Borchardt, a member of the German Bundestag, has openly questioned the impartiality of the researchers:
There are whispers of pre-existing agreements between the researchers and the BMG. This scenario strongly undermines the study's credibility. – Simone Borchardt (CDU), Member of the German Bundestag, Source: games & business
Borchardt sees a correlation between this situation and the assignment of a study to examine measures taken during the corona pandemic, which later endorsed the BMG's actions. She considers this practice crucial to the BMG's present health policies led by Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach.
Possible Reasons for Discrepant Results
Last year, statistician Katharina Schüller pointed out flaws in the latest survey in a comprehensive 140-page expert analysis.
One of the main criticisms was the questionable representativeness resulting from unsuitable sampling methods. Additionally, there were errors in data collection and analysis.
In principle, the study's structure does not permit any trend analysis, as it represents a fresh dataset, making it impossible to associate the results with previous studies from the BZgA. The German Sports Betting Association (DSWV) also echoed this concern.
Political Decisions Based on Flawed Data?
Elke Bodderas cautions against making significant decisions, such as a potential advertising ban for gambling or stricter industry regulations, on such a questionable data foundation.
As things stand, it's only conjecture whether the BMG is pursuing manipulative research policies, as suggested by Simone Borchardt, or if the numbers have truly surged, leading to potential political implications.
Regardless, it seems wise to strengthen research efforts in the gambling sector. According to the Joint Gaming Authority of the States (GGL), over ten German institutions are currently engaged in gambling research.
Despite the controversial findings from the 'Gambling Atlas' study conducted by the Hamburg Institute for Interdisciplinary Addiction and Drug Research (ISD) and the University of Bremen, online casinos in Germany continue to attract a significant number of users.
In light of the allegations of potential bias and manipulation in the research commission, some political figures in Germany, such as CDU MP Simone Borchardt, have raised concerns about the reliability of the data used to support calls for stricter gambling regulations.
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