A 90% Probability of a Government Change in the UK Exists on July 4th, Predict Bookmakers
On July 4 this year, citizens of the United Kingdom will have the opportunity to break free from the conservative government's grip as they visit the polling stations. And according to the odds, this occurrence has a high likelihood.
The odds are in favor of the Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer, who have been out of office since Tony Blair's departure in 2007, which lands them at 2/17 (-850), meaning an implied probability of about 89.5%, as per Oddschecker.
A few pollsters even believe these odds are much lower. Professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, John Curtis, told Politico that he thinks there's a "99% chance" Labour will form the next government.
So Why Now?
The Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, made the surprising decision to hold a general election unexpectedly on May 22. This is considered to be a risky move as his party has been on a downward spiral in the polls since the start of 2022.
Snap elections are unplanned or initiated when not required. They are typically used by incumbent administrations to gain an advantage when the opposition is in a vulnerable position. However, it's challenging to decipher Sunak's intentions in this case.
The latest survey, performed by Savanta, reveals Labour leading with 44% favorability rate against the Conservatives' 24%, with the remaining percentage points spread among smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Scottish Nationalists.
Waiting till the end of the year to hold the election would've given Sunak some hope for a positive change in public sentiment. However, triggering the election now leaves even less time for any significant improvement. This suggests that he may not be optimistic about the future.
Desperate Attempts
One of the possible reasons behind this early election call could have been Wednesday's news of a decrease in interest rates and an improved economic outlook.
Sunak might also be counting on the European Championship 2024 soccer tournament, which takes place in July and has England as a favorite, to sway the masses into believing the situation isn't as dire as it seems. In essence, the prime minister is clutching at very thin threads.
Sunak himself has odds of 12/1 of remaining in power and 30/1 of securing a majority. The chance of a coalition government in case of a hung parliament (no majority) stands at 13/2 with the bookies. As prime minister, Sunak's first shot at forming a majority coalition is granted. But a combination between Labour and the Liberal Democrats would be the more plausible option at 16/1.
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Source: www.casino.org
